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Changes in the industrial chain benefit PTA futures price

looking at the future market, we believe that PTA futures are still in the rising channel, and the negative factors in the early fundamentals are gradually disappearing, and changes in the industrial chain begin to benefit PTA futures price more and more. PTA main contract 1105 rose 4.01% on Monday, which may be the beginning of a new round of gains

recently, the unrest in Libya has become a new opportunity for the surge in international oil prices. However, it is worth noting that (3) the preset number of experiments automatically stopped. In the summer of 2009, Iran, one of the world's largest oil producers, witnessed large-scale anti-government demonstrations. Iran's daily crude oil output was about 4.2 million barrels, while the crude oil price at that time was almost unchanged. Why did similar events trigger different reactions in the market? The news is the test of the disk, which shows that the fundamentals of crude oil have changed greatly

with the continuous improvement of European and American economies, the global demand for oil products has increased significantly. Take OPEC's shipping volume as an example. During the financial crisis, the average daily shipping volume was 22million barrels. At the same time, the impact energy of the projectile can also dissipate rapidly along the direction of the fiber. The median value when the economy runs smoothly was 24.5 million barrels. The latest data showed that OPEC's average daily exports were 24.19 million barrels in the four weeks ended February 12. If we observe the trend curve of this value, we can see more clearly that crude oil demand has reached a new high since the crisis. The riots in the Middle East may continue or subside in a short time, but it is difficult to change the supply and demand side of crude oil in a short time. Recently, Saudi Arabia, the White House and the International Energy Agency have repeatedly stated to ensure adequate oil supply. There is little possibility that oil prices will soar again. In the short term, they may fluctuate at a high level, laying a good foundation for future rises

the strength of crude oil has set the general tone for its downstream petrochemicals. PX prices in Asia are strong. There is a shortage of PX supply in the European and American markets, and the quotation with the Asian market has reached the arbitrage condition. If more ships are shipped to Europe and the United States in the later stage, the tightness of the Asian PX market is bound to increase. According to PX spot traders, CNOOC Huizhou 900000 ton/year unit will be shut down for maintenance for one month from March to April, while the start-up time of S-oil's new 900000 ton/year unit may be postponed for one to two months. The proposed price of PX contract in March quoted by major manufacturers has also been significantly increased. The quotation of S-oil from Japan's Chuguang, shinriko, ExxonMobil and South Korea is $1730-1750/ton CFR

look at the downstream market of PTA. The operating rate of textile enterprises is affected by the Spring Festival holiday, showing a V-shaped pattern. It fell sharply before the holiday and gradually rebounded after the holiday. Polyester production and sales remained strong before the festival and declined slightly after the festival, but on the whole, polyester is still strong. PTA callback did not have a negative impact on polyester. Last week, the transaction price of polyester still increased by 100-200 yuan/ton. The inventory of polyester varieties has increased and decreased, with an absolute value of about 15 days. Whether the production and marketing of polyester can go well depends on the operation of terminal textile enterprises. Statistics show that the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms continued to rise after the festival, and the operating load rose from 20% of the trough in early January 2011 to 65% at the end of February. From the experience of previous years, the loom load will reach a normal level of 70% - 80% between March and April. At that time, the production and sales of polyester is bound to increase and the inventory will decline. The operating rate of the textile industry rose sharply after the festival, and the export data also performed well. The latest export data released by the General Administration of Customs shows that in January 2011, the textile controller responded to the parameters and operation instructions set by users, and the cumulative export of clothing was US $21.618 billion, an increase of 38.58% year-on-year; Among them, the textile export was 8.243 billion US dollars, an increase of 47.48% year on year; The export of clothing and accessories reached US $13.376 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33. The sensor is placed on the flexible rope 61%。

at present, PTA supply is in short supply, which is manifested by low Warehouse Receipt Inventory and few supply in the spot market. And in March and April, the five PTA manufacturers in South China, Ningbo and Tianjin all have maintenance plans. At that time, PTA supply may be more tense

in general, although polyester will not be the main factor to benefit PTA, PTA's own supply is tight, and the strength of crude oil and PX will become important factors to support PTA futures prices. PTA futures will return to the upward trend without systemic risk

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